How long will the impacts from the Baby Bust last?
The pandemic has forced people to stay home, so one would naturally assume that loneliness plus boredom equals some bumping and grinding, resulting in a 2021 baby boom. Because honestly, how much baking can you do or how many board games can you play before everything you bake looks like a ding dong and the only reason you play Operation is to hit the metal sides for a while. But surprisingly, we are projected to see 300,000-500,000 fewer babies in 2021.
It turns out that job loss, stress, depression, and financial uncertainty can be real cock-blocks. Babies are pretty effing expensive, and the thought of trying to buy diapers during a pandemic when toilet paper was like gasoline in Mad Max made couples really embrace social distance. Or for some, quarantining revealed that their partner can’t even keep a sourdough starter alive, which was enough to dissuade them from procreating.
There has been a 50% jump in requests for birth control since the start of the pandemic. That tracks. It’s hard enough living in an apartment these days without adding a new person who won’t pay rent. So while we won’t have to worry about as many gender-reveal parties burning down California, this projected “Baby Bust” could have an economic cost of as high as $5 trillion over the coming decades. Those aren’t just dollars lost now, they will likely never be replaced. Still cheaper than college, so hey small victories, right?
Baby-relevant products like diapers, formula, and that weird-ass plastic giraffe that babies inexplicably dig are not going to do too well if these projections hold true. We’re talking baby food companies, toy companies, the people who make those obnoxiously large bows to prove that a baby is a GIRL; the whole baby industry is shivering in its gender-neutral booties.
Some family-focused companies are hoping that if families are having fewer children, they will spend more money on the ones they have. The numbers, however, are saying bye-bye baby. If the Great Recession is any indication, it will be a while before people have the peace of mind and financial stability to start filling up those houses they can’t afford with kids they won’t spend money on.
The silver lining through all of this? We won’t have to see so much of this stuff anymore.
